Human Antithesis Blogspot

Human Antithesis Blogspot-73
Go look at the just released CBO Long Term Debt Outlook. Perhaps, but the insurance is cheap -- and with a flat or inverted yield curve it's even cheaper.Borrow long to buy insurance, not just for a good deal. In the paper I proposed that the Treasury issue 1) fixed-rate perpetuities -- a security that pays one dollar forever -- 2) floating-rate perpetuities -- just like Fed reserves, the interest rate adjusts daily and the price is always exactly Go look at the just released CBO Long Term Debt Outlook. Perhaps, but the insurance is cheap -- and with a flat or inverted yield curve it's even cheaper.Borrow long to buy insurance, not just for a good deal. In the paper I proposed that the Treasury issue 1) fixed-rate perpetuities -- a security that pays one dollar forever -- 2) floating-rate perpetuities -- just like Fed reserves, the interest rate adjusts daily and the price is always exactly $1.00 3) indexed perpetuities -- it pays one dollar adjusted for the CPI (or one of its improved versions) forever.Avoid MIXED METAPHORS "He put his foot down with a firm hand". || Go look at the just released CBO Long Term Debt Outlook. Perhaps, but the insurance is cheap -- and with a flat or inverted yield curve it's even cheaper.Borrow long to buy insurance, not just for a good deal. In the paper I proposed that the Treasury issue 1) fixed-rate perpetuities -- a security that pays one dollar forever -- 2) floating-rate perpetuities -- just like Fed reserves, the interest rate adjusts daily and the price is always exactly $1.00 3) indexed perpetuities -- it pays one dollar adjusted for the CPI (or one of its improved versions) forever. .00 3) indexed perpetuities -- it pays one dollar adjusted for the CPI (or one of its improved versions) forever.Avoid MIXED METAPHORS "He put his foot down with a firm hand".

Go look at the just released CBO Long Term Debt Outlook. Perhaps, but the insurance is cheap -- and with a flat or inverted yield curve it's even cheaper.Borrow long to buy insurance, not just for a good deal. In the paper I proposed that the Treasury issue 1) fixed-rate perpetuities -- a security that pays one dollar forever -- 2) floating-rate perpetuities -- just like Fed reserves, the interest rate adjusts daily and the price is always exactly Go look at the just released CBO Long Term Debt Outlook. Perhaps, but the insurance is cheap -- and with a flat or inverted yield curve it's even cheaper.Borrow long to buy insurance, not just for a good deal. In the paper I proposed that the Treasury issue 1) fixed-rate perpetuities -- a security that pays one dollar forever -- 2) floating-rate perpetuities -- just like Fed reserves, the interest rate adjusts daily and the price is always exactly $1.00 3) indexed perpetuities -- it pays one dollar adjusted for the CPI (or one of its improved versions) forever.Avoid MIXED METAPHORS "He put his foot down with a firm hand". || Go look at the just released CBO Long Term Debt Outlook. Perhaps, but the insurance is cheap -- and with a flat or inverted yield curve it's even cheaper.Borrow long to buy insurance, not just for a good deal. In the paper I proposed that the Treasury issue 1) fixed-rate perpetuities -- a security that pays one dollar forever -- 2) floating-rate perpetuities -- just like Fed reserves, the interest rate adjusts daily and the price is always exactly $1.00 3) indexed perpetuities -- it pays one dollar adjusted for the CPI (or one of its improved versions) forever. .00 3) indexed perpetuities -- it pays one dollar adjusted for the CPI (or one of its improved versions) forever.Avoid MIXED METAPHORS "He put his foot down with a firm hand".

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Oxymoron is a statement which, on the surface, seems to contradict itself - a kind of crisp contradiction.

An oxymoron is a figure of speech that deliberately uses two differing ideas.

Even if the current ARM rate is higher than the fixed, if ARM rates go down in the future, the ARM could end up being better.

My paper was part of a conference at Treasury, published by Brookings.

I had a good debate with Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Joshua Rudolph, and Larry Summers who wrote The Optimal Maturity of Government Debt (available here). A the time the yield curve was steeply upward sloping, and in their simulations they opined that the chance of short rates rising and long rates declining to the point that the cost advantage would invert was small.

The current reality has changed that conclusion as now it is the short rates that are higher. Between "secular stagnation" and "r* has declined" and "savings glut" you can see economists making things up right and left.

Both similes and metaphors link one thing to another. A metaphor is a condensed simile, a shortcut to meaning, which omits "as" or "like." A metaphor creates a relationship directly and leaves more to the imagination. THEREFORE, do not get too far-fetched; otherwise, the images you conjure up may be confusing or foolish.

Do not OVERUSE or sustain beyond the point of interest.

Still, I think this is the wrong way to look at it. So, you should not have huge confidence that we will not return to historically normal interest rates of the last few centuries, or moreover that we will never suffer the kinds of interest rate spikes that happen to highly indebted countries trying to roll over 100% of GDP or so debt in a recession, financial crisis, or war.

The Treasury is not in a great position to play bond trader and figure out where small variations in the yield curve reflect profitable opportunities. Like all investors, though, the Treasury's first question should be risk management, not profit. We are clearly going to run up a lot more debt before sanity sets in. If interest rates rise sharply, the US Treasury, having borrowed short, is screwed. This, to me, is the real argument that the government should issue lots more long-term debt; 100 years if needed (but please, only every 10 years or so! Buy the fixed rate mortgage, and you keep the house no matter what happens to rates. In this discussion with Greenwood et al, they argued that the chance of such an interest rate spike is low.

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