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Vanghelis Vassilatos, Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB); The thesis is awarded Vilfredo Pareto Prize for the Best Thesis in Economics 2018Chapter 5 of the thesis, co-authored with CAMILLI, Andrea, was previously published as EUI ECO WP 2017/07. ' by PAPPA, Evi, LAGERBORG, Andresa and RAVN, Morten O.This dissertation consists of three essays on macroeconomics and business cycles.This is not a trivial job, as it involves a detailed research on the available information on 17 firms for the eighteenth and early nineteenth century (201 f.).
In the following, he presents the building blocks of an institutionalist theory of the cycle (127 f.), historically defined, as opposed to the orthodox dichotomy of endogenous and exogenous variables in the framework of a simple model representing the apparatus of equilibration.
The author scorns the Schumpeterian analysis of cycles, as being produced by “waves of gadgets”, a factor of “minor importance” (279).
Finally, the book presents a consistent rebuttal of the theory of cycles as collapses generated by auto-correlated shocks impinging on an inherently stabilizing process.
This is a major contribution, since the propagation-impulse dichotomy has been for long the epicenter of the theory and modeling of cycles.
Although it is right that until 1979 these contributions were still in their infancy, the turn in the debates on cycles was initiated, and certainly by 1985 some relevant contributions were made in that sense.
The book is constructed dealing first with the theories and then with evidence, although this is limited to the definition of a sample of firms for the computation of a profit index, allowing for dating of cycles.The first studies the role of confidence shocks as a source of business cycle fluctuations using an instrumental variable approach. Such autonomous drops in confidence are, in turn, found to sizably and persistently depress consumption and economic activity, raise prices, and reduce nominal interest rates. Exogenous drops in consumer confidence are identified by using school and mass shootings in the U. These empirical findings are shown to be consistent with a model in which negative confidence shocks reduce expectations of future technology, prompting consumers to save for wealth and precautionary motives, firms to reduce employment and investment while raising prices, and monetary authorities to reduce short-term nominal interest rates. The section on time is also illuminating of the contrast between this approach and the real life economics (96 f.).Mirowski discusses the orthodox view(s) of cycles both from the point of view of the method and the reality.In the first chapter, written with Nicolas Crouzet, we ask whether news shocks, which change agents' expectations about future fundamentals, are an important source of business-cycle fluctuations.The existing literature has provided a wide range of answers, finding that news shocks can account for 10 percent to 60 percent of the volatility of output.Fertility rates are negatively associated with wage rigidities (which raise employment volatility) and positively associated with employment rigidities (which instead raise wage volatility).--1. Does Economic Security Really Impact on Gun Violence at U. Chapter 2 of the thesis 'Does economic security really impact on gun violence at U. draws upon the article 'Does economic insecurity really impact on gun violence at US schools? A curious discussion and test of Jevons’ sunspot theory, using a Granger-Wald chi-squared causality test, is presented in the following (258 f.).This thesis comprises essays in macroeconomics across two main themes.